We estimate the probabilities of sporting events.
Our statistical models produce forecasts that businesses license for use in their own products. We also advise individual and professional clients on stake sizing and risk management.
Contact us →Overview
FDM Data Solutions is a quantitative sports analytics company. We build statistical models for sporting events, license their forecasts to businesses, and advise individual and professional clients on risk.
Current coverage: football, basketball and table tennis. Other sports are in development.
Services
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For businesses
Forecast licensing
A recurring feed of forecasts for the sports and markets we agree on, delivered in a format your systems can read. You receive the forecasts, not the models behind them.
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For businesses
Custom models and research
Models for a specific sport, league or market, with back-tests and an analysis of how they perform.
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For businesses
Integration support
Help getting the forecasts into your systems, including small scripts for importing the data.
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Individual and professional clients, 18+
Risk and bankroll consulting
Advice on stake sizing, including fractional Kelly, and risk management, based on the client’s bankroll and how much risk they are willing to take.
Method
A forecast is only useful if 60% means 60%.
So that is what we test. Of all the events a model calls 60%, about 60% should actually happen; the same has to hold at 20%, at 80% and everywhere in between.
A model is judged only on matches it never saw while it was being built, and the test is fixed in advance, before those matches are opened. How it would have done in practice is what counts, not how well it fits the past.
The checking does not stop at launch. Every model keeps being scored against real results and against the market’s closing prices, and it is retrained when it starts to drift.
Techniques
- Scoring
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- Brier score
- Log loss
- Isotonic calibration
- Reliability diagrams
- Validation
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- Walk-forward testing
- Pre-registered, sealed holdouts
- Leakage checks
- Multiple-testing control
- Power analysis
- Modeling
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- Poisson and Dixon–Coles models
- Elo and Bradley–Terry ratings
- Gradient boosting
- Hierarchical shrinkage
- Time-decay weighting
- Markets and staking
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- Closing-line value
- Fractional Kelly
Principles
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Not a bookmaker
We do not accept bets, act as a bookmaker or provide gambling services.
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No client funds
We never hold or receive client funds. Client money stays with the client.
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No guarantees
Forecasts are probabilities. We do not promise profits or returns.
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Confidentiality
Client information and forecasts are kept confidential.
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Adults only
Services for individuals are for people aged 18 and over.
Company
- Legal name
- FDM Data Solutions LLC
- Address
- 990 Biscayne Blvd, Ste 501-16, Miami, FL 33132, United States
- Clients
- Sports media and information services, data platforms, and individual and professional clients
- Pricing
- Agreed per engagement, on request
Contact
For licensing, research or consulting, write to
Please include a short description of what you need.